5,000 YEARS OF INTEREST RATES
3000 BC → 2026 AD • Based on BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane's "Stuck" speech • Homer & Sylla dataset
"Interest rates appear to be lower than at any time in the past 5,000 years" — Andy Haldane, Bank of England, June 2015
Sources: Haldane (2015) "Stuck" BoE • Homer & Sylla (2005) 4th Ed • Hills/Thomas/Dimsdale (BoE) • FRED
THE 5,000-YEAR GRAND NARRATIVE
Ancient Era
3000 BC – 200 BC  |  33% → 8%

Rates fell from 33% (Sumerian barley) to 8% (Hellenistic) as credit systems matured from clay tablets to Greek temple banking. The Code of Hammurabi (1772 BC) was the first known interest rate regulation.

Roman/Byzantine
200 BC – 1000 AD  |  4% → 12%

Pax Romana drove rates to 4% — the ancient world's low. The fall of Rome sent rates surging. Byzantine legal limits kept rates ~8-12% through the Dark Ages.

Medieval → Dutch
1000 – 1700 AD  |  20% → 3%

Italian banking innovation drove the longest decline: 20% to 5% over 250 years. Then Dutch financial revolution created the first modern capital market, pushing rates to 3%.

Modern Era
1700 – 2026 AD  |  6% → 16.4% → 0.08%

The most volatile period in 5,000 years. Both the all-time peak (16.4%, Volcker 1981) AND trough (0.08%, COVID 2021) occurred within 40 years of each other.